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Of course, it is not just the US’s Asian partners that are worried: the latest Munich Security Report also worries about the consequence of Washington’s more nationalistic foreign policy on the entire edifice of the liberal international order.Still, Asian powers will have to seriously consider the consequences of an eventual US withdrawal from the region and their strategic options if such an eventuality were to come to pass.
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If such a US withdrawal were to take place, Asian powers face some unpalatable choices.
Asia is already heavily unbalanced as a consequence of China’s dramatic economic growth.
This gross imbalance has political consequences, as Latin America’s relations with the US and rest of the world clearly illustrates.
There is little that these countries can do to counter American power in the region.
Alternatively, the next four Asian economies will have to grow at an average annual rate of 8.5% between themselves to match China’s incremental annual growth rate. Consequently, China should be expected to continue to put further distance between itself and the other major Asian powers for a considerable number of years.
It is possible that China might not reach the level of dominance that the US has in its region, but in the absence of any countervailing external power, its dominance over Asia is already established and will only deepen.
In other words, each year China is adding about half a trillion dollars more to its wealth than the next four major Asian powers put together add to theirs.
Of course, China’s growth rates are already slowing down.
As its growth continues to outpace other Asian powers (save, possibly, India), the imbalance of power in Asia might very well come close to resembling the imbalance of power in the Western Hemisphere, where American dominance places even the most powerful states in the region at a serious disadvantage.
It is important to note that Asia is not as unbalanced as the Western Hemisphere , and it is possible that it will never become as unbalanced.
But unless there is a dramatic decline in its growth rate to about 2.5%, other Asian powers will not even be able to match China’s incremental annual growth, let alone begin to catch up.