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Nevertheless, Europe’s Muslim population will continue to grow at a faster pace than its non-Muslim population, which has been decreasing.As a result, Muslims are expected to make up a growing share of Europe’s total population.
The growth rate for the Muslim population in the Russian Federation is projected to be 0.6% annually over the next two decades.
This increase followed the collapse of communism, when religious identity and expression became more acceptable throughout Eastern Europe.
The total number of Muslims in Eastern Europe is expected to increase from 18.4 million in 2010 to 20.6 million in 2030.
The number of Muslims living in Northern Europe, which includes the United Kingdom, is expected to increase from 3.8 million in 2010 to 7.5 million in 2030.
Muslims are expected to make up 7.0% of Northern Europe’s population, up from 3.8% in 2010.
In the next 20 years, the number of Muslims in the region is forecast to increase by roughly 14 million, albeit from a higher base.
In annual percentage terms, Europe’s Muslim population is projected to grow at a declining rate, in part because of falling fertility rates and in part because Muslim immigration to Europe is leveling off (see discussion of fertility on page 132 and of migration on page 133).(For more information on Russia’s Muslim population, see sidebar on page 128.) The number of Muslims in Russia is expected to grow from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030.Muslims are projected to make up 14.4% of Russia’s total population in 2030, up from 11.7% in 2010.Less than 3% of the world’s Muslims are expected to be living in Europe in 2030, about the same portion as in 2010 (2.7%).Most European Muslims will continue to live in Eastern Europe, but some of the biggest increases in Europe’s Muslim population in absolute numbers over the next 20 years are expected to occur in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany and other countries in Western, Northern and Southern Europe.Eastern Europe will continue to have the largest number of Muslims in Europe, but Western Europe, Southern Europe and Northern Europe are expected to have bigger increases in the size of their Muslim populations – both in absolute numbers and as a share of their total populations.